Napa County Real Estate October 2019 Report

Updated Market & Census Statistics, Home Prices & Appreciation Rates, Luxury Home Sales, Price Reductions, Employment & Interest Rates.

Year-over-Year Q3 Comparisons – Q3 2016 – Q3 2019

Median House Sales Price by Quarter

Year-over-Year Quarterly Appreciation Rates

Home Sales by Price Segment & Bedroom Count

The variety of homes sold in Napa County is astounding, but by far the most common sale is of a 3-bedroom house at a price between $500,000 and $750,000.

New Census Estimates

Underlying the real estate market are the changing details and circumstances of its population. At the end of September, the U.S. Census released its 2018 American Community Survey 1-year data estimates for a broad range of economic, social and demographic statistics. Below is a selection of survey insights into our community, plus 2 or 3 statistics from other sources. (You may want to expand this slide for easier reading.)

Higher-Price Home Sales

Overall, home sales of $1 million and above were down from their peak in Q3 2018, but, as seen in the second chart below, home listings and sales of $2 million-plus hit new highs, by a tad.

Selected Market Indicators

Activity in the market usually begins to decline after the end of the summer selling season, and then plunges in mid-November. Note that the nadir of sales in Q1 mostly reflects the plunge in accepted offer activity in the last 6 weeks of Q4. Of course, sales occur in every month of the year, and indeed, slower periods can be advantageous to buyers since competition for listings drops.

The percentage of listings reducing price usually climbs through the end of summer and stays relatively high in early autumn, as sellers of unsold homes try to recapture the attention of buyers while the market is still relatively active – i.e., before the big, mid-winter holiday slowdown that begins in mid-November.

Employment Trends

Unsurprisingly, a major dynamic affecting home price appreciation or depreciation is the ups and downs in county employment numbers. Though Napa-Sonoma has had a very strong recovery in employment numbers since the market recession of 2009-2011, it has not experienced the stupendous new highs in (generally, very well paid) jobs seen in counties most affected by the high-tech boom – which have pressurized their markets more intensely.

Mortgage Interest Rates

A year ago, many experts predicted that interest rates in 2019 would average in the 5.5% range, but they plummeted instead, a major dynamic in this year’s market. Buyers generally saw substantial drops in homeownership costs as compared to late 2018. Note that historically, it has been very difficult to predict interest rate movements.