SF House & Condo Listings Accepting Offers
Activity by Week: sales activity really picked up since mid-January, with the last week of the month showing the highest number of accepted offers of any week in the past 6 months. In number of listings accepting offers, the full month of January 2011 was up 28% from January of 2010 and up 76% from January 2009 (the market’s nadir). 2010 Overview Analysis
Percentage of House & Condo Listings Accepting Offers
Charted by Week: With buyer demand increasing and relatively low inventory levels, the last week of January saw a spectacular rise in the percentage of listings accepting offers in San Francisco.
SF Home Listings for Sale
The dark red columns show the number of listings for sale at any time during the month; the lighter columns show the number of active listings on the LAST day of the month. Except for December 2010 and December 2009, January 31st saw the lowest number of active listings on the market for the last 25 months. (This chart shows the last 13 months.) Inventory levels should climb dramatically as we move toward spring.
SF New House & Condo Listings
Charted by Week: new listings have been arriving on market in relatively moderate numbers, especially as compared to the beginning of the autumn 2010 season in mid-September. It appears that the number of new listings is not currently meeting buyer demand.
SF Median Home Sales Price
For houses, condos, TICs by Month: as is typical in January, the median home price dropped. This is for 2 main reasons: firstly, for whatever reasons, a greater percentage of buyers of more expensive homes check out once the holiday season begins in mid-late November, and this affects the median sales price for the subsequent months of closings. Secondly, while many sellers pull their listings from the market for the holidays, banks do not: bank-owned home sales thus climb as a percentage of sales, and since bank-owned sales are heavily clustered at the lower price points, that drags the median price as well. January’s median sales price was virtually the same as in January 2010, which is in keeping with the overall stability of median prices in the City over the past 7 quarters. Indeed, despite jogging up and down on a monthly basis, comparing 2010 with 2009, the overall median sales prices for both houses and condos in SF were virtually unchanged. More on SF Median Prices
Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI)
For SF Houses & Condos by Month: except for April 2010 (with its tax credit crush of sales), the MSI in January was the lowest for the last 13 months, and signficantly below the level of January 2010. If we look at just houses, the strongest selling property type, the MSI drops to a very low 2.8 months of inventory. MSI for bank-owned and short sale homes in SF dropped to an even lower 2 months of inventory, signaling a very hot market for these typically lower-end “distress sale” homes.
SF Distress Home Unit Sales
(By Month) In this chart, distress sales are defined as both bank-owned (REO) property sales and short sales (the lender must agree to a reduced payment on the outstanding loan for the sale to close), though one should note that these are somewhat different animals. In short sales, the seller still lives in the home and it usually does not look “distressed” as is often the case with bank-owned homes. (Short sales can be very time consuming and aggravating, due to the requirement for lender approval.) The monthly number of distress sales has stayed relatively stable in 2010, and though this January’s number was higher than that of January 2010, as a percentage of total sales it was virtually unchanged year over year. As seen in a later chart, distress sales are mostly clustered in the lower price ranges of home sales in the City.
Percentage of Distress Sales by District
The top chart shows the percentage of distress sales (both REO & short sales) by quarter in the less affluent Realtor districts of 3 & 10 (Bayview across to Oceanview), while the lower chart shows the percentage of such sales in the affluent districts of 5 (Noe/ Castro/ Haight) and 7 (Pacific Heights/ Marina). The cross-hatched portion of the column reflects the number of distress sales. In SF, the whole phenomenon of distress sales largely began in late 2008/ early 2009. As one can see, the less affluent districts 3 & 10 have been hugely affected, with the percentage of distress sales running 38% – 45% in the past 4 quarters. The more affluent districts 5 & 7 have been relatively unaffected by distress sales, with the percentage usually running in the 3 – 6% range (and those predominately in the lowest price ranges for homes in those neighborhoods). In both charts, the percentage of distress sales in the 4th quarter of 2010 was the lowest for the year.
2010 Bank-Owned (REO) Home Sales by Price Range
In 2010, homes below $650,000 were much more dramatically affected by foreclosures and the resulting bank-owned home sales than those at the higher price ranges. Under $650,000, the percentage of REO sales is 29% for houses (and then, mostly in the less affluent areas of the city), and 13% for condos. Once above $650,000, the percentage drops to a relatively negligible 3-4% of sales. Above $1 million, it falls to well below 2%, not enough to impact values in these price ranges and the neighborhoods one finds them.
Median Price for SF Distress Sale Homes
Reflecting the fact that most distress sales (both REO & short sales) occur at the lower price ranges, the median price for such sales in the City has been generally running in the $450,000 to $500,000 range, well below the overall median sales price for SF homes (approximately $700,000 when including distress sales; approximately $750,000 when not).
Homes Sold vs. Listings Expired or Withdrawn
The green bars delineate closed sales per month and the purple bars delineate listings expired and withdrawn. While the market has definitely heated up since mid-September, a large number of listings still expire or are withdrawn without selling, typically due to being perceived as overpriced. (December is usually the peak month for expired/ withdrawn listings.) If not priced fairly, as defined by the market, the home typically won’t sell, or even attract offers.
For the past 12 months per Bankrate.com: interest rates have been climbing since their incredible lows in October, though they remain low by historic standards and are roughly comparable to where they stood 8-10 months ago. Many pundits believe rates will continue to increase in 2011. Rate increases could affect the market in two totally different ways: buyers may pull out of the market as the cost of home buying increases, or buyers may rush into the market having come to the conclusion that prices have bottomed out, and they best move quickly before interest rates climb further. Needless to say, interest rates can affect the cost of home ownership very significantly (unless one is paying all cash): an increase of 1 percentage point is roughly comparable to paying a 10% higher purchase price.
Mortgage Rates since 1971
Here’s a good chart to put into context the recent rise in rates since last October.
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